An Analysis of Life-Year Lost Due to COVID-19 - 34 Countries, December 2019-March 2021.

What is already known about this topic?: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused severe health consequences. Though most COVID-19 deaths occurred among very old people, their life-year loss might be very large because of their life expectancy at that age. What is added by this report?: This study quantified how many years of life were lost due to COVID-19 in 34 countries. COVID-19 caused 9 to 21 years of life lost (YLL) per deceased patient. East Asia and Oceania had substantially lower per capita YLL than North America and Europe. Among all countries included, the United States had the greatest total YLL, Peru had the largest YLL per 100,000 people, and Mexico had the largest YLL per 100,000 COVID-19 patients. What are the implications for public health practice?: The YLL quantification indicated that the vulnerable population, especially the elderly, should be protected under careful public health measures to reduce their YLL. It also implied that it might be too early to lift anti-epidemic restrictions now, since the extreme disproportionate consequences (total and per-capita YLL) in different countries underscored the scrutinization over the variation in disease control strategies to optimize future disease control and prevention.

Economic evaluations of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in six Western Pacific and South East Asian countries and regions: A modeling study.

OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to document the economic profiles of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, the evidence on which is currently absent. METHODS: Decision tree models were developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of two doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines at a population vaccination rate of 50% in the base case, which was an estimate of feasible vaccination coverage according to previous studies. Epidemiological, mortality, cost, and health state utility information were sourced from the literature. Vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 cases by severity were estimated using meta-analyses of publicly accessible phase 3 trial results of inactivated vaccines. The health outcomes were quantified as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and compared across the vaccination and no vaccination strategies. In scenario analyses, incidence and vaccination rates were changed semi-continuously over spectrums, the results of which were presented as contour lines informing the efficiency frontiers of vaccination strategies. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were also conducted. RESULTS: The vaccination strategy was dominant in all jurisdictions in the base case by producing 105.18, 98.15, 99.70, 60.48, 112.00, and 103.47 QALYs while saving US$40.26 million, US$5.26 million, US$7.60 million, US$5.91 million, US$21.33 million, and US$7.18 million in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand per every 100,000 vaccinated individuals, respectively. Results were robust in alternative model specifications. CONCLUSIONS: Inactivated COVID-19 vaccines may be cost-saving options in Hong Kong SAR, Indonesia, mainland China, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Mass vaccination programs using inactivated COVID-19 vaccines should be considered in these jurisdictions.

Effectiveness of remdesivir for the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 persons: A network meta-analysis.

Several randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that investigated the effectiveness of remdesivir for the treatment of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) have generated inconsistent evidence. The present study aimed to synthesize available RCT evidence using network meta-analyses (NMAs). Both blinded and open-label RCTs in PubMed database from inception to 7 June 2020 that contained "remdesivir", "Covid-19", and "trial" in the abstracts conducted on hospitalized COVID-19 persons were identified and screened. The studies must have at least one remdesivir arm and evaluated one of the pre-specified outcomes. The outcomes were clinical improvement between days 10 to 15 after randomization and clinical recovery during the follow-up period. The identified literature was supplemented with relatively recent studies that were known to the researchers if not already included. Frequentist NMAs with random effects were conducted. Both 10-day and 5-day remdesivir regimens were associated with higher odds of clinical improvement (odds ratio [OR] of 10-day regimen: 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09-1.67); OR of 5-day regimen: 1.81, 95% CI, 1.32-2.45, and higher probabilities of clinical recovery (relative risk [RR] of 10-day regimen: 1.24, 95% CI, 1.07-1.43; RR of 5-day regimen: 1.47, 95% CI, 1.16-1.87 compared with placebo. Remdesivir may have clinical benefits among hospitalized COVID-19 persons.

Economic evaluation of remdesivir for the treatment of severe COVID-19 patients in China under different scenarios.

AIMS: The present study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 5-day remdesivir regimen compared with standard of care among severe COVID-19 patients in China, the evidence on which is essential to inform the necessity of securing access to remdesivir. METHODS: A dynamic transmission model that extended the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered framework by incorporating asymptomatic, presymptomatic and waiting-to-be-diagnosed patients was constructed to conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis from the healthcare system perspective. To estimate epidemic parameters, the model was first calibrated to the observed epidemic curve in Wuhan from 23 January to 19 March 2020. Following the calibration, the infected compartment was replaced by 3 severity-defined health states to reflect differential costs and quality of life associated with disease gravity. Costs and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) outcomes of 9 million simulated people were accrued across time to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of remdesivir. As robustness checks, an alternative modelling technique using decision tree, additional epidemic scenarios representing different epidemic intensities, and 1-way parameter variations were also analysed. RESULTS: Remdesivir treatment cost CN¥97.93 million more than standard of care. Also, the net QALY gain from 5-day remdesivir treatment was 6947 QALYs. As such, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was CN¥14 098/QALY, substantially lower than the gross domestic product per capita threshold. The peak daily number of severe cases was 19% lower in the remdesivir treatment strategy. Overall, results were robust in alternative scenarios and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Given the cost-effectiveness profile, access to remdesivir for severe COVID-19 patients in China should be considered.

The cost-effectiveness of conducting three versus two reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction tests for diagnosing and discharging people with COVID-19: evidence from the epidemic in Wuhan, China.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to evaluate the effectiveness of conducting three versus two reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) tests for diagnosing and discharging people with COVID-19 with regard to public health and clinical impacts by incorporating asymptomatic and presymptomatic infection and to compare the medical costs associated with the two strategies. METHODS: A model that consisted of six compartments was built. The compartments were the susceptible (S), the asymptomatic infective (A), the presymptomatic infective (L), the symptomatic infective (I), the recovered (R), and the deceased (D). The A, L and I classes were infective states. To construct the model, several parameters were set as fixed using existing evidence and the rest of the parameters were estimated by fitting the model to a smoothed curve of the cumulative confirmed cases in Wuhan from 24 January 2020 to 6 March 2020. Input data about the cost-effectiveness analysis were retrieved from the literature. RESULTS: Conducting RT-PCR tests three times for diagnosing and discharging people with COVID-19 reduced the estimated total number of symptomatic cases to 45| 013 from 51 144 in the two-test strategy over 43 days. The former strategy also led to 850.1 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of health gain and a net healthcare expenditure saving of CN¥49.1 million. About 100.7 QALYs of the health gain were attributable to quality-adjusted life day difference between the strategies during the analytic period and 749.4 QALYs were attributable to years of life saved. CONCLUSIONS: More accurate strategies and methods of testing for the control of COVID-19 may reduce both the number of infections and the total medical costs. Increasing the number of tests should be considered in regions with relatively severe epidemics when existing tests have moderate sensitivity.